Teams in all caps have auto bids into the tournament. Lower cased teams have earned at large bids.
Last Four In Byes
Pittsburgh (25-9, RPI: 39, SOS: 58) – Pittsburgh failed to defeat Virginia and advance to the ACC finals. However, they looked very good in the loss, which is added to several other close losses by the Panthers to top teams. While Pitt is only 2-7 against the top 50, they have no losses, their computer numbers are moving in the right direction and they seem to have passed the eye test. They should be good for the tournament.
Arizona State (21-11, RPI: 44, SOS: 52) – Arizona State should be in the tournament. However, not putting up a strong showing in the Pac-12 Tournament has left them a little closer to the cut line than they may have hoped, especially after great runs from St. Joe’s and Providence in their respective tournaments Their numbers are okay, they have some quality wins and some not-so-quality losses. The Sun Devils are another team that get the benefit of the doubt due to the eye test.
Xavier (21-12, RPI: 47, SOS: 25) – The Musketeers should be dancing when the field of 68 is announced today. Beating Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals should have been enough to lock them up. Their SOS is strong, their RPI is acceptable, and they have some wins, including Creighton and Cincinnati on a neutral court. Their resume isn’t spectacular but good enough.
Southern Methodist (23-9, RPI: 53, SOS: 114) – As other bubble teams help themselves in their conference tournaments, teams like SMU that lost early in their tournament get pushed down closer and closer to the cut line. SMU is a team I don’t expect to be left out of the field, but their resume is far from stunning.
Last Four In
Nebraska (19-12, RPI: 48. SOS: 27) – The Cornhuskers are dropping due to the success of some other bubble teams. There weren’t very many bid stealers this year, though, and so I don’t see Nebraska getting knocked out, especially since none of the other bubble teams have any games left. Nebraska got knocked into having to play in Dayton but they will still hear their name called later today.
BYU (23-11, RPI: 31, SOS: 24) – If Kyle Collinsworth hadn’t torn his ACL, BYU would have a lot less to worry about. Since the Cougars will be without him for the postseason the committee could rethink giving BYU an at large bid. However, their strong computer numbers, including an extremely important ranking of the fourth best non-conference schedule, should be enough to keep them in.
Tennessee (21-12, RPI: 42, SOS: 22) – Even though Tennessee lost to Florida in the SEC semifinals yesterday, they competed with arguably the best team in the country. If there were ever a time to use the term “good loss,” now would be it. Despite the loss, Tennessee remains in the field by virtue of the eye test as well as teams behind them doing nothing to help their cases.
Dayton (23-10, RPI: 43, SOS: 64) – Flyers fans everywhere will be nervous this evening and rightfully so. Dayton has looked much better toward the later end of the season, but earlier they racked up three poor losses, including a loss to hapless USC, and at home no less. The SOS isn’t the best and they’re 4-6 against the top 50, which isn’t going to wow anyone on the committee. They’re right near the cut line, but their resume is slightly better than the next guy’s, which keeps them in.
First Four Out
California (19-13, RPI: 63, SOS: 36) – Nothing has changed here except that the numbers are actually getting worse. Providence winning the Big East Tournament wasn’t the help California was hoping for. It’ll be close, but it’ll be the NIT for the Golden Bears.
Minnesota (20-13, RPI: 50, SOS: 8) Sometimes the eye test is an important factor in decided which teams get into the tournament, and Minnesota certainly failed to pass that in their final chance to impress the committee. The Gophers were smacked by Wisconsin, and while the Badgers played well, Minnesota certainly helped with their poor performance. Maybe they can get it straight in the NIT.
Florida State (19-13, RPI: 39, SOS: 58) – It’s still same-old, same-old here with FSU. They needed a high quality win in the ACC Tournament, they failed to get one and they are going to suffer the consequences.
Southern Miss (27-6, RPI: 32, SOS: 131) – USM simply doesn’t have the SOS or non-conference SOS to get a tournament bid. The committee has shown the last few years how important it is to them for a team to go out and challenge itself in the non-conference. However, it seems USM missed the memo as their best wins outside of C-USA were against North Dakota State and Georgia State. Maybe now they’ll learn their lesson and play someone.
Next Four Out
Missouri (22-11, RPI: 49, SOS: 67) – There isn’t much to say. Had they beaten Florida, they’d be in much better shape. But they lost and so they find themselves on the outside looking in with no way of improving their resume. Hope for a miracle, Columbia.
Arkansas (21-11, RPI: 77, SOS: 95) – Arkansas wasn’t going to get in anyway, but the numbers keep getting worse and worse. If there was any hope before, there can’t be any now with an RPI in the high 70s and nearly a SOS outside of the top 100.
North Carolina State (21-13, RPI: 55, SOS: 32) – The Wolfpack lost to Duke yesterday in what was a must win for NC State. Now, with no games left and an already weak resume, the Wolfpack will have to ready themselves for the NIT.
St. John’s (20-12, RPI: 68, SOS: 51) – At least some of these other teams have a few quality wins. The Red Storm really have one which came against Creighton. Try again in 2015.
Big 12 – 7 (Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State)
A-10 – 6 (VCU, Saint Louis, Massachusetts, George Washington, St. Joseph’s, Dayton)
Big Ten – 6 (Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska)
Pac-12 – 6 (Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford, Arizona State)
AAC – 5 (Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, Southern Methodist)
ACC – 5 (Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh)
Big East – 4 (Villanova, Creighton, Xavier, Providence)
SEC – 3 (Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee)
Mountain West – 2 (San Diego State, New Mexico)
WCC – 2 (Gonzaga, BYU)
3. Wichita State
6. Iowa State
13. Michigan State
17. San Diego State
19. Ohio State
21. North Carolina
24. New Mexico
25. Saint Louis
31. George Washington
34. Kansas State
36. Oklahoma State
37. St. Joseph’s
40. Arizona State
43. Southern Methodist
50. North Dakota State
51. Stephen F. Austin
53. Western Michigan
56. Georgia State
57. North Carolina Central
58. New Mexico State
59. Eastern Kentucky
62. Weber State
64. Coastal Carolina
66. Mount St. Mary’s
67. Texas Southern
68. Cal Poly